My aim here is to give a traditional analyst’s unbiased view of the facts around evolving opportunities in the public markets. “Battleground stocks” may ring a bell to those who participate in public investing forums, such as Value Investors Club, COBAF, Fintwit, Threads, and Seeking Alpha. These stocks draw the attention, and emotion of both Bulls and Bears and tend to move in sudden, explosive moves to the upside or downside. My method is to try and kill an idea in about 2-3 days. So, the effort and research provided herein will reflect such time constraints in most cases. In the 5-10% of cases where further research is deserved, I will continue updating write-ups with incoming data points and insights.

These bull/bear debates will always be occurring in real-time, and I will typically source such debates, and any additional pain points from the public domain.

The essentials of my process are to explain the business in its purest form, contextualize how the company got to where it is today, provide a profit pool and industry map, describe the customer value proposition and use cases, summarize recent business/industry trends, give an overview of the key value drivers, use price implied expectations for the current risk/reward, and find the Key Debate point (bull/bear case) with an eye towards both risk & de-risking events that could change the future IRR.

Things not to expect: 40-page write-ups, complex models, deep and time-consuming scuttlebutt, use of alt data, and strong opinions held either way.

What to expect: The essence of a stock pitch, simple model with key value drivers, publicly sourced data, where we are today and why now is a good time to research the stock, “Strong opinions loosely held”